Italy vs Moldova: prediction & betting odds 9 June 2025

The Matchday 4 World Cup 2026 qualifier between Italy and Moldova will take place on June 9 at the Stadio Giglio in Reggio Emilia. Italy vs. Moldova: prediction and betting odds, statistics.

Italy

In their opening match of this qualifying campaign, Italy suffered a 0-3 defeat away to Norway. Notably, the last time the team lost by such a margin in this tournament was in 2017. Italy's recent World Cup qualifying results have been disappointing for their fans: the team has won only one of their last seven encounters (4 draws, 2 losses), failing to score in four of those matches. Luciano Spalletti's side is currently in fourth place in Group I.

For Luciano Spalletti, the match against Moldova will be his last as the head coach of the Italian national team. His resignation was officially announced on the evening of June 8.

• At least one opponent did not score in 5 of Italy's last 6 World Cup qualifying matches.
• The team has not conceded more than one goal in their last 11 home games in this tournament.
• Italy has not won at home in 5 of their last 7 World Cup qualifiers (4 draws, 1 loss).

Predicted lineup for Italy (4-4-2)

Gianluigi Donnarumma – Alessandro Bastoni, Destiny Udogie, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Diego Coppola – Nicolo Barella, Nicolo Rovella, Sandro Tonali, Davide Zappacosta – Giacomo Raspadori, Matteo Retegui.

Moldova

Serghei Cleșcenco's side missed the third round and played a friendly against Poland, losing 0-2. The qualifying campaign started with defeats to Norway (0-5) and Estonia (2-3). As a result, Moldova is at the bottom of Group I. The team has lost 11 consecutive World Cup qualifiers, failing to score in 6 of those matches.

• At least three goals have been scored in 6 of Moldova's last 7 matches in this tournament.
• The team has conceded at least two goals in their last 6 home World Cup qualifying games.

Predicted lineup for Moldova (5-4-1)

Cristian Avram – Oleg Reabciuk, Vadim Rață, Victor Mudrac, Vladislav Baboglo, Artur Ioniță – Veaceslav Posmac, Maxim Cojocaru, Mihail Caimacov, Nikita Moțpan – Ion Nicolaescu.

Midfielders Vadim Rață and Maxim Cojocaru are suspended. Defender Artur Crăciun is injured.

Referee

Urs Schneider (Switzerland)

Matches – 7 (International matches, 2024/25);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 44;

Average yellow cards per match – 6.3;

Red cards shown – 3;

Average fouls per match – 18;

Penalties – 14%.

Italy vs. Moldova: Match Prediction

Italy has suffered a significant number of injuries, but this does not justify the result against Norway. In the upcoming match, Luciano Spalletti's side will likely aim to redeem themselves in the eyes of their fans and will want to do so convincingly. Especially since their next opponent is the clear underdog in Group I, showing very weak results in World Cup qualification.

Moldova is on an 11-match losing streak in World Cup qualification, and in only one of those games did they concede fewer than 2 goals. In this cycle, Serghei Cleșcenco's side has allowed 8 goals in two home matches, even though one of the opponents was Estonia, a team of similar quality. Now they face the challenge of containing a highly motivated Italian attack away from home. Notably, Moldova has conceded an average of 3 goals in their last 8 away World Cup qualifiers.

My prediction: Italy individual total over 2.5 goals